At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (35) and the Vancouver Canucks (36) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Edmonton (56-30-7) has won six of their last nine games after tying this series at 3-3 with their 5-1 win at home against the Canucks on Saturday. Vancouver (57-27-10) has lost two of their last three games.  

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Oilers have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by four or more goals against a fellow Pacific Division rival. They have also played 18 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at home. Vancouver has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing to a divisional opponent. The Canucks have also played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Vancouver has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by four or more goals. 8* NHL Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Edmonton Oilers (35) and the Vancouver Canucks (36). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (36) versus the Edmonton Oilers (35) in Game Seven of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Vancouver (57-27-10) has lost two of their last three games after their 5-1 loss on the road against the Oilers on Saturday. Edmonton (56-30-7) has won six of their last nine games after tying this series at 3-3.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CANUCKS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Vancouver has some work to do still — but they put themselves in the driver’s seat in this series by winning Game Five at home by a 3-2 score. They got dominated in Edmonton in Game Six — but that sets them up to rebound with a resilient effort tonight against this inconsistent Oilers team. The Canucks have won 27 of their last 36 games after a loss — and they have won 9 of their last 11 games after losing to a fellow Pacific Division rival. Additionally, they have won 14 of their last 19 games after losing on the road in their previous game — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games after losing by three or more goals to a divisional opponent. Arturs Silovs is the better goaltender tonight. His 2.89 Goals-Against-Average and .898 save percentage in his nine starts this postseason do not inspire a ton of confidence — but he does register +0.6 Goals Saved Above Expected so he is playing above average the midrange goaltenders in the league. In that crucial Game Five, he stopped 23 of the 25 shots he faced. He also has big-game experience after leading Latvia to an unexpected Bronze medal in the 2023 World Championship that culminated in an upset victory against the USA. Getting this game at home will help since it allows head coach Rick Tocchet to ensure that his defenseman Quinn Hughes is on the ice when Edmonton’s star forward Connor McDavid is playing. The Canucks have won two of the three games at home in this series while scoring 11 goals. Vancouver has won 13 of their last 22 home games with the Total set at 5.5. Edmonton remains inconsistent — they have lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 6 of their last 8 games after scoring five or more goals in their last game. They have also lost 12 of their last 20 games against teams using a goaltender with a regular season save percentage no higher than .895 — so it’s not like they only lose to great goaltenders. And there is the weak link which is their goalie Stuart Skinner. In his nine starts in the playoffs this season, he has a 2.97 GAA and a .881 save percentage. More telling, he has a -2.9 Goals Saved Above Expectation which indicates he has been well below the average goalie in this series. Unfortunately, these postseason struggles are nothing new. In his 21 career playoff starts, he has a 3.36 GAA and a .882 save percentage. His struggles early in the year got head coach Jay Woodcroft fired. He also plays worse when on the road. While he had a 2.49 GAA and a .913 save percentage in 32 regular season starts, those numbers rose to a 2.80 GAA and a .894 save percentage in 27 games on the road this season. In his two starts in Vancouver in this series, he has allowed eight goals with a .814 save percentage. He did look better in Game Six after getting benched the two previous games — but he only faced 15 shots. The Canucks need more activity against him tonight — and they do average 27.7 shots when playing at home. The Oilers are not a great defensive team either to make things easier on Skinner. They rank 10th of the 16 postseason teams in expected Goals Allowed (xGA) and 14th in High Danger Chances Allowed — and both of those stats are independent of Skinner’s subpar play. Furthermore, Edmonton has lost 10 of their last 16 games on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The analytics love Edmonton — and those laptops have indicated that Vancouver has overachieved this season. A deeper look at those numbers suggests that the Canucks exceeding expectations was mostly during their hot start — but they were a good team according to the analytics in the second half of the season. They will be without forward Brock Boeser tonight due to an undisclosed injury which is a huge blow and gave me pause — but they still have star talent with Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller, and Hughes. Most importantly, this team has something the Oilers lack: heart. Even without star goaltender Thatcher Demko, they still find themselves in a Game Seven at home against this Oilers team with the better metrics. Vancouver has won 18 of their last 25 games when playing with revenge. 25* NHL Pacific Division Game of the Year with the money-line on the Vancouver Canucks (36) versus the Edmonton Oilers (35). Best of luck for us — Frank.